Wednesday, 19 March 2025 Reading time : 3 minutes

Aryzta's shares are in demand: since the beginning of the year, they have risen by more than 20%, outperforming the Swiss market as a whole (SPI: +11.7%, as of March, 18, total return). The maker of frozen croissants, bread and cakes is thus continuing its upward trend of recent years, raising hopes that the perennial turnaround candidate might actually be back on the road to success. 

Aryzta's bumpy ride is reflected in its share price performance over the past decade, which saw record levels in July 2014. However, the stock market success came at a price: the bakery company, which has roots in Ireland, had pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy, which drove up the debt burden, as The Irish Times summarised. The combination of high debt and strategic mistakes gradually undermined the financial market's confidence in management from 2014 onwards  the shares slid, hitting a low of just under CHF 0.30 in April 2020. 

Since then, the company has been working on a turnaround under new management. Although Aryzta's shares are gradually recovering from their plunge, they are still trading around 90% below their previous record levels. Whether or not investors will place more trust in the stock will likely depend on the strategy for the coming years, which Aryzta will present on May 7.

While Aryzta seems to be on the right track, Kuehne + Nagel is still waiting for a turnaround. The logistics company's shares lost more than a quarter of their value in 2024 and were among the worst performers on the SMI. Kuehne + Nagel also fails to keep pace with the market this year, gaining only 2.7%, significantly less than the SMI (+13.2%) and the SPI (+11.7%). 

The company is facing an extremely turbulent market environment. In its annual results announcement, it drew attention to the crisis in the Red Sea, which is still being avoided following attacks on cargo ships by Houthi rebels, and to the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has led to the closure of Russian airspace. Since the election of Donald Trump, speculation about trade tariffs has added further uncertainty. 

However, Kuehne + Nagel also sees opportunities in this volatile environment. "In a highly interconnected world with increasingly disruptive systems, logistics is much more than just moving goods from point A to point B," the management said in the letter to shareholders. The company believes it is well positioned to meet these challenges.

Temenos shareholders are also hoping for better times. The Geneva-based banking software provider successfully navigated the coronavirus pandemic, but since then its business model has come under pressure, which has been reflected in its share price. Investor confidence was further undermined last year when US financial investor Hindenburg Research accused the management of manipulating its accounts, leading to the resignation of the CEO. The allegations have since been refuted, as reported by Reuters amongst others, and Temenos is now looking to return to its former success under new leadership. The company hopes to achieve this with a new strategy, which management unveiled at the Capital Markets Day last November.

This move was initially well received by stock markets, helping the shares to rise by more than 45% between the end of November and mid-February. However, Temenos failed to impress with its recently published earnings. Although profits rose sharply in the last quarter (+47% quarter-over-quarter) and the dividend is to be increased, the software maker had to revise its medium-term targets slightly downwards. Since then, the stock has been on a downward trend – the coming months will therefore put the new corporate strategy to the test.

Barrier Reverse Convertible on Turnaround Candidates
9.10% p.a. BRC on Aryzta, Kuehne + Nagel, Temenos
Barrier: 54%
Valor: 142 530 231

Indicative terms

 

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