Thursday, 28 August 2025 Reading time : 4 minutes

So far, the tariff dispute with the United States has had little impact on the Swiss stock market. The SPI increased by around 2.5% in August (as of 27 August 2025), returning to levels of mid-June. While negotiations between Bern and Washington are ongoing, there seems to be optimism in the stock market that the 39% import tariffs imposed on Swiss goods will be reduced. However, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, US trade policy is likely to continue causing uncertainty and posing challenges for Swiss companies operating in the US.

In this market environment, the bonus certificate on Zurich Airport, Holcim, Kühne + Nagel, Sika and Sonova could be interesting. The five companies are characterised by their low dependence on the US export market. The bonus level of 112% offers attractive yield potential, while the barrier partially cushions price losses.

Focus on Switzerland, local production and a customs exemption
Switzerland's largest airport earns around half of its annual revenue from the aviation business. The other half comes from the non-aviation segment, which includes duty-free and real estate businesses, as well as income from operating various international airports in Brazil and India. Therefore, the US tariffs do not directly affect Flughafen Zürich's business, even though the United States is an important pillar of its long-haul network.

Building materials manufacturer Holcim is also likely to observe the tariff dispute from the sidelines. The company spun off its North American business in June and intends to focus on growth potential in Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Kühne + Nagel also appears unconcerned. As a globally active group, its Swiss share is small, the logistics company told the AWP news agency with regard to the US tariffs. In fact, Kühne + Nagel could benefit from the challenging global trade environment, given that managing complex supply chains is one of the group's core competencies.

Building materials and chemicals group Sika is also likely to be unaffected, as it relies on local presence. The company produces almost 100% of the products sold in the US locally, as announced in its half-year figures. Meanwhile, hearing aid specialist Sonova is invoking the 1976 Nairobi Protocol, which stipulates that devices for people with disabilities are exempt from customs duties. Sonova claims that 85% of its sales are generated by products that fall under the protocol. US President Donald Trump has not touched the agreement so far, however, there is no guarantee that he will not do so in future.

All five shares are rated ‘overweight’ by Zürcher Kantonalbank Research.

Safety buffer in uncertain markets
The bonus certificate on the five shares has an 18-month term and features a 70% barrier, which is monitored at expiry (European barrier). The product features a bonus level of 112% and 1:1 participation. Specifically, this means that if the five shares are trading above the barrier at maturity, the redemption price will be 112% or higher if the value of the basket of shares is above the bonus level. As this is a European barrier, whether one or more shares breach the barrier during the term is irrelevant for the repayment. Only the observation at the end of the term is relevant. If the barrier is breached at maturity – i.e. if the value of one or more of the equities has fallen by 30% or more compared to the initial fixing – the weakest share in the selection will be delivered and a loss will be incurred.

Bonus level opens up return potential
Compared to a direct investment in equities, the bonus certificate offers investors the advantage of generating appealing returns, even in stagnating or slightly falling markets. This is owed to the bonus component, which ensures a minimum repayment of 112% as long as the barrier is not breached at maturity. If the basket value exceeds the bonus level, investors participate fully in the price gains. The barrier acts as a safety buffer, which can be advantageous in uncertain market phases. However, investors forego any dividend payments compared to a direct investment.

Weighing opportunities and risks
As with any investment, investors must consider the risks associated with this product. These include issuer risk, the risk of breaching the barrier and general market risk. Therefore, the investment decision always depends on investors' individual investment needs and their market expectations.

In subscription until September 19, 2025.

Product details
Term: 18 months
Currency: CHF
Valor: 147 480 743

Termsheet

Indicative terms

 

Disclaimer
This communication is for marketing purposes. It is neither an offer nor an invitation to submit an offer, to purchase or to subscribe to securities and does not constitute investment advice. You should consult your advisors before making an investment decision. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, financial condition, development or performance of the issuer to be materially different from any future results, financial condition, development or performance expressed or implied by such statements. The present document has not been drawn up by the research department as defined in the rules of the “Directives on the Independence of Financial Research” published by the Swiss Bankers Association, hence these rules do not apply to this document. If securities are mentioned in the communication, the base prospectus, the final terms and any key information document may be obtained free of charge from Zürcher Kantonalbank, Bahnhofstrasse 9, 8001 Zurich, VRIS, and from www.zkb.ch/finanzinformationen.
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