Thursday, 10 July 2025 Reading time : 3 minutes

Next week, US banking giant JPMorgan Chase will present its figures for the previous quarter, kicking-off the earnings season on Wall Street. According to an analysis by data provider FactSet, stock analysts expect earnings growth to continue in the second quarter. They are forecasting aggregate earnings growth of 5% for S&P 500 companies year-over-year. If these forecasts are correct, it will mark the eighth consecutive quarter of earnings growth, albeit at a significantly slower pace: the five-year average is 12.7%, while the ten-year average is 9.2%.

At the sector level, the picture is likely to be mixed. Six of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are expected to report year-on-year earnings growth, led by communications services (+29.5%) and information technology (+16.6%).
 
Conversely, five sectors are projected to experience a decline in earnings. The energy sector is likely to be hit particularly hard, with an expected decline of 25.6%. According to FactSet, this is mainly due to lower oil prices, which averaged around a fifth less than the previous year in the second quarter of 2025. Companies within the basic materials and cyclical consumption sectors are also likely to see declining profits, at –3.5% and –5.2% respectively.

Meanwhile, US stock markets look back on a positive second quarter. The S&P 500 gained almost 11% between April and June. Once again, tech giants provided the impetus. Shares in chip manufacturer Nvidia rose by almost 46%, while Microsoft recorded gains of over 32%. Amazon (+15.3%) and Alphabet (+14.1%) also outperformed the index.

Barrier Reverse Convertibles on US Tech Companies

CHF Quanto
9.10% p.a. BRC on Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia
Barrier: 61%
Valor: 144 652 569

USD
12.00% p.a. BRC on Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia
Barrier: 59%
Valor: 144 652 566

Indicative terms

 

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